What AnalogQuant Shows You

AnalogQuant reads live Kalshi binary options flow and dealer gamma hedging to map where BTC price is being pushed, pinned, and squeezed — right now, strike by strike. Every number you see comes from real customer order flow and the forced hedging it creates for market makers. The dashboard tells you which strikes are magnets, which direction the pressure is pointing, and where the model thinks BTC will settle at the top of the hour. This guide walks every feature tab by tab, top to bottom, exactly as it appears on screen.

Header Controls (always visible)

The persistent navigation bar pinned to the top of every page contains several always-available controls:

AnalogQuant logo / wordmark

Click to return to the top of the page from anywhere.

Search bar (Cmd+K or /)

Opens a command palette you can type into to jump to any tab, layer, or action without touching the mouse. See the Cmd+K Search section for details.

EST clock

Current Eastern time and date in the header. All Kalshi hourly contracts settle on the ET hour, so this clock is your reference for time-to-settle.

Live status pill

Green dot + "Live" when the data feed is active. Turns amber or shows an error state if the feed is stalled. Tells you whether the numbers you're looking at are current.

Refresh button

Manual data refresh. The dashboard polls automatically every ~30 seconds; use this to force an immediate update.

X (Twitter) icon

Links directly to Follow @AnalogQuant.

Email icon

Opens a new email to Hello@AnalogQuant.com.

Theme toggle (moon/sun icon)

Switches between dark and light theme. Your preference is saved in the browser. Defaults to your OS theme on first visit.

The status strip (second header row) shows Session label, next contract settle time, and last-data freshness age. If "Last data" shows more than 60 seconds ago, the feed may be delayed.

What to look for: if the Live pill is not green, wait a few seconds and hit Refresh before reading any signal — stale data produces stale reads.

Tab Navigation

The horizontal tab bar directly below the header lets you switch between eight dashboard sections. A freshness dot on the right side of the tab bar matches the Live status pill, so you always know if data is current regardless of which tab you're on.

Live

The primary real-time tab. Main OI chart, Pulse 15M, ADI, Edge Radar, Live Signals, and all live charts for the active contract.

Terrain

Full-width BTC positioning terrain chart plus the Strike Positioning table and 15-min binary flow sidebar.

Flow

Customer taker flow history charts for the active contract — cumulative YES/NO, net bias, VWAP, and pain meter.

Pressure

Capitulation Pressure and Max Pain charts. Intraday urgency scoring and the classic max-pain magnet.

Lab

Strategy Lab — edge discovery, shadow testing, and strategy flywheel (IDEA / SHADOW / LIVE).

Practice

Manual paper trading ladder, Auto Trader feed, and performance stats. Your trades stay in this browser only.

Replay

Replay mode — scrub back through past contracts with the full OI timeline and forecast reveal.

Help

This guide — including forecast calibration stats and methodology (formerly the Reference tab).

What to look for: start with Live for any live-trading read. Switch to Pressure in the last 10–15 minutes of a contract when capitulation dynamics tend to dominate price action.

Forecast Strip (Live Spot · Forecast EOH · Time to Settle · 1-sigma Band)

The thin four-cell bar pinned at the top of every tab is the single most important number strip on the dashboard. It updates on every data poll, roughly every 30 seconds.

• Live spot — the current BTC price in USD, sourced from the Crypto.com Exchange feed. This is the real-time anchor against which all strikes are evaluated.
• Forecast EOH — the model's end-of-hour price estimate. Derived from the current OI terrain: the weighted average of where MM hedging pressure is concentrated. Think of it as a gravity center, not a guaranteed target. The sub-label shows how far the forecast has drifted from the prior tick.
• Time to settle — countdown to the top of the hour when the active Kalshi hourly contract closes. At :00 the contract settles and a new one starts. The sub-label shows a plain-English label like "34 min left".
• 1-sigma band — the model's expected one-standard-deviation price range for the current contract, using remaining time-to-expiry and realized volatility. Shows as low · high (e.g. $103,250 · $104,500). BTC staying inside this range is the "base case."

What to look for: if spot is near the edge of the 1-sigma band with only a few minutes to settle, the binary near that edge is repricing fast. Wide gap between Forecast EOH and current spot means the model sees strong directional pull — watch for acceleration.

OI Terrain Chart (Live OI Timeline)

The main chart on the Live tab. It shows every Kalshi hourly strike (Y axis) over time within the current hourly contract (X axis). The entire hour's worth of customer order flow is painted here minute by minute.

Three types of information live on the same canvas:

• Pressure heatmap (band behind each strike) — a colored horizontal strip behind each strike showing net customer flow direction. Green = customers bought YES heavily, forcing the market maker (MM) to buy BTC as a hedge. Red = customers bought NO, forcing the MM to sell BTC. Amber = large balanced position — a "pin magnet" with no directional lean. Sky-blue = squeeze level (explained in Layers below). The brighter the color, the stronger the imbalance.
• Flow bubbles — circles that appear as customers trade. Filled circle = new position opened (customer buying into a side). Hollow circle = position closed (customer exiting). Circle size scales with the dollar amount of that print.
• BTC spot line — a bold white/light line tracking the live BTC price against the strike axis, so you can see where spot is relative to each pressure zone in real time.

What to look for: spot approaching a green band from below means the MM has to keep buying BTC as spot rises — self-reinforcing upward pressure. Spot approaching a red band from above is the mirror: self-reinforcing downward pressure. The brightest bands are the most powerful magnets.

Chart Layers (6 Toggleable Overlays)

Six overlay layers can be turned on or off with the pill buttons above the chart. Your choices are saved in your browser. Defaults are Terrain + Gravity + sigma Cone on.

Terrain

The continuous 2D color wash behind each strike zone. Warm (green/red/amber) = high MM hedge demand at that price level. Cool (gray/transparent) = thin positioning. Opacity scales with imbalance intensity. This layer tells you where the structural forces live across the entire strike ladder at once.

Gravity → Net-side

Per-strike horizontal band: green = strike is YES-heavy (net yes_taker_cum > no_taker_cum; MM buying BTC), red = NO-heavy (MM selling BTC), amber = heavy balanced wall / pin zone (balanced flow, high OI), gray = low-signal. Intensity ∝ OI × |γ| at that strike. The “Net-side” label makes the direction explicit — this is not just magnitude, it shows WHICH side the aggressive taker flow is on.

Stripes

Narrow left-edge markers (4px wide) at each strike. Same color as Gravity but more compact. Useful when you want the directional signal without the full band fill visually competing with the terrain. Off by default.

sigma Cone (sigma Cone)

A purple shaded envelope that narrows to the right as the contract approaches settle. It shows the model's ±1 standard deviation expected price range. As time runs out, the cone tightens — strikes that were in-range start exiting the cone, their binaries repricing hard.

Hedge rings

Colored circles drawn around each flow bubble, identifying which direction the MM has to hedge for that specific print. Green ring = MM must buy BTC for this trade. Red ring = MM must sell BTC. Off by default; useful for watching real-time hedging flow at a granular level.

YES% sparkbar

A thin probability bar on the right margin of the chart for each visible strike, showing the market's current implied YES probability for that strike's binary. Tallest bar = highest probability. Lets you see the full probability distribution in one glance without switching to a table. Off by default.

What to look for: a sky-blue (squeeze) strike inside the sigma Cone with the sigma Cone tightening means a large concentrated dealer position is inside the expected settle range — conditions for a sharp move if that level is tested.

Reading the Heatmap (Precise map)

The chart legend row has a Heatmap: Precise / Classic toggle button. Classic is the original look. Precise is on by default and makes the map truer in four ways:

1. Strength is relative, extremes pop

In Classic mode the shading is normalized to one hot cell, so mid-range reads look flat and compressed. In Precise mode the shading scales to the live distribution of all cells (using a log p99 reference), so mid-range reads are visible and the genuine top-decile zones climb all the way to their true brightness. The very hottest zones get a peak ring; a squeeze zone gets a sky ring and a peak tab so it reads at a glance without needing to check the strike table.

2. Open vs close — solid = building, muted/dashed = unwinding

Solid, bright color means positions are opening at that strike — OI is growing, a wall is building. Muted color with a dashed pattern means positions are closing — OI is draining, an unwind is in progress. In Classic mode both states rendered the same way, so a large unwind looked identical to fresh positioning. Direction is hue: green = YES-side (MM buying BTC), red = NO-side (MM selling BTC).

3. Sharpens into settle

Early in the hour the map stays calm and broad — all near-money strikes have roughly similar weight. In the final ~10–15 minutes, near-money strikes tighten and light up: they’re the decisive levels then, and the map weight shifts to reflect that. Strikes far from current spot fade so the meaningful zone stands out.

4. Pin = intense-neutral, not invisible

A strong balanced wall (roughly equal YES/NO OI at a strike) reads as a clear, high-intensity neutral band — distinct from thin gray (low activity) and distinct from a weak directional zone. Classic mode could wash these out; Precise mode makes the strength of the balance visible.

How to use it: read the Precise heatmap for structure — where the walls are, what’s building vs unwinding, where the squeeze and decisive levels sit, how the map firms into settle. The map is a positioning picture, not a trade signal arrow.

Honest caveat: holdout backtests showed that the obvious directional reads don’t hold up in practice. Price does not reliably move toward the heavy green or red zones. Settle does not gravitate to the dominant wall (no max-pain / pin-magnet effect). A squeeze ring does not predict a bigger move. The wall’s side does not call direction. The map shows where positioning is concentrated; it is not predictive on its own.

What to look for: use the Precise map to identify where the structural walls are and whether they’re building or being taken off. A solid bright band that flips to muted/dashed mid-hour is a wall unwinding in real time — meaningful context even if it isn’t a directional signal by itself.

Y-Axis and X-Axis Zoom Toggles

Two rows of pill buttons above the OI chart — one for the Y (price) axis and one for the X (time) axis — let you narrow the view to exactly where the action is.

Y-axis zoom (price range)

±1 sigma, ±2 sigma, or All strikes. Narrower zoom keeps only the strikes closest to spot on screen, making signals clearer in low-volatility hours.

X-axis zoom (time range)

Last 15m, Last 30m, or Full hour. Narrowing to Last 15m shows the most recent flow in detail; Full hour gives the whole contract's arc.

What to look for: in the final 10 minutes of a contract, switch X-axis to Last 15m and Y-axis to ±1 sigma — this tightens the view to exactly where the action is.

MM Hedge Bias Banner

A narrow banner just below the zoom controls showing the aggregate market-maker hedge direction score for the active hourly contract.

A single signed number: positive = MM net buying BTC, negative = MM net selling BTC. The arrow and color show direction at a glance. The "trend" delta shows whether the bias is getting more bullish or bearish since the last poll. The detail text shows the formula: sum of (|yes_taker_cum − no_taker_cum| × signed binary gamma) across all strikes.

What to look for: a rapidly increasing positive number with a green arrow means MM buying pressure is accelerating — consistent with a bullish OI terrain read. A turn from positive to negative mid-contract often precedes spot reversals.

READ Panel (Auto-Narrated Chart Interpretation)

The READ panel sits above the chart on the left side and auto-updates every data tick. It translates the raw chart data into a structured plain-English read, always in the same row order:

NOW

Current spot price, time to expiry, and the current 1-sigma swing estimate for the remaining contract life.

STRUCTURE

Macro bias — BULLISH-LOADED, BEARISH-LOADED, or MIXED. Derived from counting green vs red gravity bands among the top 5 brightest strikes.

PIVOT

The closest squeeze-level (sky-blue) strike to current spot. Squeezes are the highest-intensity points on the chart — extreme dealer gamma concentration. If spot tests a pivot, expect amplified price movement.

ABOVE / BELOW

The single brightest non-squeeze strike above spot (with its direction and intensity) and the single brightest below. These are the immediate structural walls.

EOH

The model's end-of-hour forecast price, its drift direction since the last tick, and the 1-sigma band for settle.

SCENARIOS

Direction-aware plain-English description of the two most likely outcomes. Phrasing adapts based on where spot is relative to the pivot (e.g. "break above" if near it, "hold above" if already there, "reclaim" if below).

RISK

The price level that would invalidate the current read — where the model considers the setup wrong.

What to look for: when STRUCTURE is BULLISH-LOADED and PIVOT is less than $50 away, the setup is tightest. The SCENARIOS row gives you the exact two-way trade thesis in plain language — you can use this as a quick pre-trade checklist.

Brightest Strikes Panel

A compact readout directly below the OI chart showing the top 3 strikes by intensity (the 3 most active zones on the chart). For each strike you see:

• Rank — 1st, 2nd, 3rd brightest.
• Colored dot — green (MM-buy), red (MM-sell), amber (pin/balanced), sky-blue (squeeze). Same 4-zone classifier as Gravity.
• Strike price — the Kalshi hourly strike level.
• Intensity — a 0.00–1.00 score where 1.00 is the strongest position on the chart. Scores above 0.85 earn a SQUEEZE badge.
• Distance from spot — signed dollars (negative = below spot, positive = above).
• SQUEEZE badge — appears when intensity is 0.85 or higher, marking the strike as a top-decile concentration point.

What to look for: if the #1 brightest strike carries a SQUEEZE badge and is within $100 of spot, that strike is the most powerful magnet on the chart right now. Binaries at that strike often show the fastest price action near expiry.

Biggest Flow Callout

A single-line readout below the OI chart showing the largest single customer print picked up by the latest data poll — direction, strike, dollar size, and estimated MM hedge magnitude.

The MM hedge figure is a rough relative indicator (not a tradeable number). It uses a 0.35 delta proxy to size the expected BTC hedge required for that print.

What to look for: a very large single print at a strike close to spot often signals institutional positioning. If the print direction matches the terrain color at that strike, it confirms the existing pressure. If it contradicts it, watch for a terrain shift on the next poll.

What-if Simulator (SIM Mode)

A toggle above the OI chart that switches from live data to a "what-if" sandbox. In SIM mode, drag the chart vertically to set a hypothetical BTC spot price. The terrain recomputes to show what the positioning landscape would look like at that price, using today's actual (frozen) open interest.

• Activate — click the SIM pill. The chart border changes to show you are in simulation mode.
• Forward time slider — in SIM mode, a slider appears letting you advance time up to 60 minutes forward. This shows how the sigma Cone would tighten and which strikes would be in-range at a future moment.
• Sim columns in Paper ladder — while SIM is active, the trade ladder shows Sim Y and Sim N columns: the implied YES and NO mid prices at the simulated spot and time.
• Return to live — click the LIVE pill to exit SIM mode.

What to look for: use SIM to preview what a $500 BTC move would do to the terrain before it happens. Check if a hypothetical spot level would put you inside a squeeze zone, and whether the sigma Cone would still contain the strike you're watching.

Live Signals Card

A card on the Live tab that auto-generates plain-text signal alerts as the model detects patterns in the live flow. A quiet card means a quiet market.

Each signal names the pattern (e.g. capitulation pressure building, anti-consensus flow, smart-money divergence), the strike or range it applies to, and a plain-English explanation. Signals update automatically with each data poll.

What to look for: when two or more signals fire at the same time pointing in the same direction, that is the model's highest-confidence setup. A single isolated signal should be treated as context, not a standalone trade trigger.

AnalogQuant Direction Index (ADI)

The composite barometer on the Live tab. A single score from −100 (strongly bearish) to +100 (strongly bullish), synthesizing 7 independent signals into one directional read — plus a range forecast for the next hour.

Score and label

The headline number and label (BULLISH, NEUTRAL, BEARISH — with qualifiers like MODERATELY or STRONGLY) is the ADI's overall read at this moment.

Agreement

How many of the 7 component signals agree with the headline direction. "6/7 agree" is high conviction; "4/7 agree" is mixed.

Barometer bar

A horizontal gauge from −100 to +100 with a marker showing exactly where the score falls.

Next-hour expected range

A visual band showing the 1-sigma and 2-sigma price range projected for the next 60 minutes, with the current spot marker inside.

Component breakdown

Each of the 7 sub-signals listed with its own direction and strength, so you can see which signals are driving the composite and which are contradicting it.

Pin analysis

When conditions qualify, shows the most likely pin level, its probability, and the supporting factors.

Context and caveats

Model-generated notes about unusual conditions (very low OI, approaching expiry, conflicting signals) that reduce confidence in the read.

What to look for: a score above +60 or below −60 with 6+ components agreeing is the ADI's clearest signal. Near zero with low agreement means the market is genuinely undecided — avoid forcing a directional trade.

Replay Mode (LIVE / REPLAY Toggle)

A control bar on the Replay tab that lets you switch from live streaming data to a historical replay of any past Kalshi hourly or 15-minute contract.

LIVE / REPLAY toggle

Click REPLAY to switch modes. Live data pauses; the chart will replay whatever contract you select.

Contract picker

Dropdown listing past contracts by date and time. Toggle between Hourly and 15-min contract types.

Time slider

Scrub from T−60 (contract open) to T−0 (settle). Arrow keys also work: left/right step to the same time-point on the next/previous contract; up/down step ±1 minute.

Play / Pause / Restart

Animate the replay forward at the selected speed. Default speed is 3× (~15 seconds to replay a 45-minute contract).

Timeline chart

BTC spot line and customer YES (green) / NO (red) flow dots accumulating as you scrub or play.

Reveal panel

When you pause, shows the model's Forecast EOH at that slider moment vs the actual settle price and the forecast error. This is how you backtest the model's forecast accuracy on specific contracts.

What to look for: use Replay to study contracts where a large move happened — scrub to the 30-minute mark and see what the terrain looked like before the catalyst. The Reveal panel's error number tells you how accurate the EOH forecast was at that point in the contract.

GEX by Strike (Deribit Gamma Exposure)

A strike ladder on the Terrain tab showing dealer gamma exposure from Deribit options, with a header stat strip for the selected expiry.

Expiry selector

Filter to a specific Deribit expiry date. Default is the nearest daily expiry.

Spot / Net GEX / Call-Put OI / IV (ann.)

Summary stats for the selected expiry.

Strike ladder

Each row is a Deribit strike. Bar width scales with the absolute GEX. Green bar = dealer long gamma (dampening — dealer buys low/sells high, smoothing moves). Red bar = dealer short gamma (amplifying — dealer is forced to buy into rallies and sell into drops). The ATM row is highlighted.

What to look for: large red bars (dealer short gamma) at or near spot mean Deribit options dealers are amplifying moves — expect sharper intraday swings. The Net GEX number tells the overall balance: positive = stabilizing regime, negative = amplifying regime.

Current Setup Sidebar (Terrain)

A compact summary card listing the model's current trade setup in structured fields: Bias (bullish/bearish/mixed), Strength (score), Spot, Trigger (the price level that confirms the setup), Target/Floor (price objective), Invalidates (the level that cancels the read), Time to settle, and Realized sigma. A plain-English mechanism note below the fields explains why the setup is structured this way.

What to look for: use this card as a quick sanity-check before entering a trade. If your planned entry is on the wrong side of the Trigger level, the setup has not confirmed yet.

Customer Flow — Underwater Map (Terrain Tab)

A table on the Terrain tab showing every active strike where customers have traded during the current contract, with their volume-weighted average price (VWAP) vs the current mid price. Toggle between Hourly and 15-min views.

For each strike, YES and NO sides each show: total dollars bought, VWAP paid, current mid, and delta (mid minus VWAP). Green delta = customers are in profit if they hold to settle. Red delta = customers are underwater.

What to look for: when a large YES position is significantly underwater (big red delta), those customers face pressure to exit — which can create a wave of selling as they close. A large profitable YES position may see profit-taking near settle, softening the upside.

Pulse 15M Chart

The Pulse chart lives on the Flow tab and shows all four 15-minute KXBTC binaries for the current hourly contract on a single timeline. Each binary is a separate colored line tracking its YES probability (0 to 1.00) from its open to close.

• Line color = net customer flow direction. Dark green = strong YES buying. Dark red = strong NO buying. Yellow = balanced. Gray = thin (under $1k total flow). Three intensity tiers in each direction (light/medium/dark).
• Line thickness scales with total customer dollars — thicker means more money committed.
• BTC spot move — a bold white line overlaid on the right Y-axis showing BTC price as a percentage vs each binary's floor (the prior 15-min close). Crosses 0% = at-the-money.
• Heatmap behind lines — a color wash showing where buying conviction was strongest at each (time, price) bucket. Bright green = heavy YES buying concentrated here. Dark red = heavy NO buying.
• Settle dots — green triangle up at a settled-YES binary, red triangle down at a settled-NO binary.
• Volume bar strip below — total customer dollars per 2.5-minute bucket, so you can see when flow was heavy vs quiet.

What to look for: when all four lines shift from yellow to green simultaneously while BTC spot is climbing, it means customers are piling into YES across every 15-min binary at once — a strong near-term bullish signal. A single ghosted (faded) line means that binary already settled; focus on the remaining active ones.

15-Min Binary Cards (Recent 15-Min Outcomes)

Below the Pulse chart on the Flow tab is a bar chart of the last 12 settled KXBTC15M binaries. Each bar represents one settled contract.

• Bar height = the final YES mid price (which equals the market's terminal probability that the binary resolved YES). A bar at 0.80 means the market was 80% confident it would close YES right before settle.
• Green bar = settled YES likely (final YES mid was 50 cents or above). Red bar = settled NO likely (final YES mid was below 50 cents).
• Label below = close time in Eastern time.

What to look for: a run of green bars with final mids in the 0.80–0.95 range means the market has had strong directional conviction recently. Alternating green/red at mid-range prices (0.45–0.55) means choppy price action — the model's 15-min calls are noisier in this environment.

Hourly ATR Tile

ATR stands for Average True Range — the dollar range BTC has moved within an hour. The tile gives you five stats about the current hour's volatility:

Current ATR

The actual high-minus-low range this hourly contract has covered so far. Factual, no projection. Updates with every spot tick.

Expected this hour

An estimate of where the range will land at the bell. Uses the range so far plus the typical 1-sigma additional move over remaining minutes (formula: range so far + spot × annual vol × sqrt(minutes remaining / 525,600)). The expected-extra portion shrinks toward zero as the hour closes.

Historical median (30d)

The median hourly BTC range across all settled hourly contracts in the last 30 days. The p25–p75 bracket shows the "middle half" of typical hours.

Percentile vs history

Where this hour's projected range ranks against the full 30-day sample. p94 means only 6% of recent hours moved wider. The "xN vs median" multiplier shows how unusual today's volatility is.

Similar conditions

Conditional comparison filtered to the same time-of-day, weekday, and volatility regime. The US equity open hour (9–10am ET) is flagged as structurally more volatile. Low N (e.g. n=3) means use caution — the filter may have been relaxed to find matches.

What to look for: if Expected this hour is 3x the Historical median (p95+), you are in an outlier vol hour — binary mid prices are likely to gap fast near any strike test. If Expected is at p10, it is a quiet grinding hour where binaries near-ATM can drift slowly all the way to settle without repricing.

Edge Hero Callout ("Playable Edge Right Now")

A highlighted callout card on the Live tab showing the single best-ranked trade the model has identified for the active contract, updated every minute. It distills the full Edge Radar table into one headline: the top play's entry (e.g. "BUY NO $104,000"), edge vs market, EV per dollar risked, and conviction level.

What to look for: when this card shows HIGH conviction with positive EV and the terrain chart agrees (correct color at that strike), the two signals are confirming each other. When the Edge Hero and terrain disagree, wait — conflicting signals reduce confidence.

Edge Radar

The Edge Radar table is a live scoring of playable Kalshi bets for the active hourly contract. It ranks contract-side combinations by expected value (EV), focusing on the two "cascade walls" — the strongest green (lower floor) and red (upper ceiling) zones nearest to spot.

The table has eight columns:

• Play — the contract and side (e.g. "YES $103,500" means buy YES at that strike).
• Action — BUY YES or BUY NO.
• Cost — current market mid price per contract, in cents (e.g. 0.38 = 38 cents).
• Mkt % — the market's implied probability (derived from the mid price).
• Our % — the model's estimated probability based on terrain, flow, and volatility.
• Edge — Our % minus Mkt %. Positive edge means the model thinks the market is underpricing this outcome.
• EV/$ — expected value per dollar risked. Calculated as Edge × payout / cost. Positive = positive expectation, negative = negative expectation.
• Conviction — a label (HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW, AVOID) summarizing the overall signal quality. HIGH = clear EV+. AVOID = customer-loaded side (fading the dumb money).

What to look for: rows marked HIGH with positive Edge and EV/$ above 0.10 are the highest-confidence setups. AVOID rows are shown for transparency — they represent the side retail customers are over-buying, which is historically unfavorable. Do not bet into AVOID rows.

Vol-Stability Gate

The Vol-Stability Gate is a real-time switch that decides when the bot's hedge_no_below hourly strategy is allowed to trade. That strategy only has an edge when short-term Bitcoin volatility is steady; when vol suddenly spikes or collapses, the same setup loses. So the gate watches volatility live and lets the strategy trade only while things are calm. Nothing else on the dashboard is affected — this gate governs that one strategy.

The big word in the top-right corner is the state — read this first:

• ARMED (green) — volatility is flat and steady. The strategy is cleared to trade.
• TRIPPED (amber) — vol just jumped or dropped sharply. New entries are blocked until it settles back down.
• REARMING (blue) — vol is settling; the gate needs one more calm reading before it re-arms (two clean checks in a row required, so a single quiet blip doesn't re-open the door prematurely).
• WARMING (grey) — the gate is still building its baseline (needs ~4 samples ≈ 20 minutes, e.g. right after a restart). It blocks trading until it has enough history to judge.
• DISABLED (grey) — the gate is switched off; the strategy trades unrestricted.

Under the badge is the math it uses to decide, in four numbers:

• ATR now — current short-term volatility, in dollars. It's the average minute-by-minute BTC price range over the last 10 minutes (higher = choppier).
• Baseline — the "normal" it compares against: the average ATR over the last ~30 minutes (six 5-minute samples).
• Drift — ATR now − Baseline (signed). How far current vol has moved from normal, and which way.
• Ratio — |Drift| ÷ Baseline, shown against the trip threshold (0.30). This is the number that flips the gate: when vol swings more than 30% away from its baseline, the gate TRIPS. Using a ratio (not a fixed dollar amount) keeps it fair whether ATR is $15 or $40. The little meter bar fills toward the threshold — nearly full means it's on the edge of tripping.

The ARMED vs Blocked scoreboard is the live proof the gate is working. "ARMED" is the win rate of trades that fired while the gate was open; "Blocked" is the win rate of the trades it held back (tracked but not taken). If the gate is doing its job, ARMED should beat Blocked over time (target roughly 74% vs 60%). Below that, the transitions list logs each recent state flip with its Eastern-time stamp and the ratio at the moment it flipped.

What to look for: a green ARMED badge means the strategy is live-eligible right now. Frequent TRIPPED / REARMING flips mean vol is choppy and the strategy is deliberately sitting out — that's the gate protecting the book, not a bug. On real money only the armed hourly leg mirrors live (at half size); the 15-minute leg of this setup never trades real money. Watch the ARMED-vs-Blocked gap over a week — a clear ARMED advantage means the gate is earning its keep.

Recent Positions Strip + Export

The Recent Positions strip runs across the top of the page below the tab navigation. It shows the Auto Trader's latest completed trades in real time — this is paper trading, not real money. The Auto Trader trades simulated positions sized at 10 contracts against a $13,000 bankroll and halts at -$50 per session.

Each row in the strip has nine columns:

• Strategy — which paper strategy placed this trade (e.g. "app" = Auto Trader, "LeoDog" = a separate strategy feed).
• Date / Time — when the position was entered, in Eastern time.
• Strike — strike price and contract type (hourly or 15-min binary).
• Direction — BUY YES (bet BTC finishes above the strike) or BUY NO (bet BTC finishes below).
• Entry — the price paid per contract at open.
• Exit — price received at close. Empty while the position is still open.
• Settle — BTC spot price when the trade was sold or settled at expiry. Compare to Strike to see how YES/NO resolved.
• Size — number of contracts.
• P&L % — return percentage on the trade. Hover a P&L cell to see the dollar amount.

The header bar also shows the current bankroll, today's total P&L, and a Strategy filter dropdown to isolate individual strategy feeds.

Export: click the "Export" button to open a dialog where you can download a CSV of the trade log. You can filter by date range, use quick-select presets (Today, Last 7d, Last 30d, Session today), and choose which strategy accounts to include. The CSV includes all nine columns plus a strategy column for multi-account exports.

What to look for: a streak of green P&L rows near a specific strike type (e.g. all NO bets near strike+$100) indicates the Auto Trader is finding repeatable edge in a specific structure. The "View full history" link at the bottom takes you to the Paper tab for complete trade history and performance stats.

Ask Ralph (AI Assistant)

Ralph is a floating chat assistant in the bottom-right corner of every page. Click the "Ask Ralph" button to open the chat panel. Ralph reads the live positioning data on the dashboard and can explain what it means in plain English.

• Quota — free users get a limited number of questions per session (shown in the header of the chat panel). Signing in for a free account gives you 5 questions per day with no card required.
• Quick chips — four pre-set questions appear at the start of every session. These are the most common things users want to know: current setup, how to read the terrain chart, what would invalidate the read, and what AnalogQuant measures. Click any chip to send that question instantly.
• Free-form questions — type any question about the current data, a methodology question, or a "what if" scenario into the text box and press Enter or the send button.
• What Ralph knows — Ralph reads the sanitized public data on the page: current spot, terrain structure, OI positioning, the READ panel, and forecast. It does not have access to private signals, position sizing, or live trading decisions.
• Not financial advice — Ralph's answers are educational explanations of the data on screen, not trade recommendations.

What to look for: the most useful Ralph questions are specific to the current moment — "Why is the terrain red right now?" or "What does a squeeze at $104,000 mean for the binary?" Vague questions get vague answers; the more the question references what you see on screen, the more actionable Ralph's response will be.

BTC Positioning Terrain Chart — Terrain Tab

The full-width version of the terrain visualization on its own dedicated tab. Shows every active Kalshi strike colored by MM hedge force across the full strike ladder, with a dashed line at current spot.

Color

Green = MM forced to buy BTC at this strike level; red = MM forced to sell; gray = balanced (no directional force). Brightness scales with imbalance magnitude times binary gamma.

Zoom controls

Near ±$500, Mid ±$1.5k, Wide ±$3k, or All strikes. Use Near for tight intraday reads; All to see the full landscape including distant strikes.

Scroll / pinch / drag

The chart is interactive — you can scroll or pinch to zoom in on any region, and drag to pan along the strike ladder.

What to look for: large green bands stacked just below spot means layered MM buying pressure supporting BTC from below. Stacked red above spot means layered selling pressure overhead. The denser the color and the closer to spot, the more powerful the structural influence.

15-Min Binary Flow Card (Terrain Tab)

A sidebar card on the Terrain tab showing the current 15-minute binary's customer flow in a four-row table: customer dollars bought on YES and NO sides, VWAP paid on each side, current mid on each side, and delta (mid minus VWAP — positive = in profit). Net bias (YES minus NO) and MM P&L on the contract are shown below the table.

What to look for: a large YES delta in profit near expiry means YES-holders are winning and may hold through settle, supporting the contract. A large negative delta means losers — potential exit pressure that can push the mid lower.

Strike Positioning Table (Terrain Tab)

A filterable table on the Terrain tab listing all active Kalshi strikes near spot, with key positioning metrics: Strike, Distance from spot, Open Interest, YES mid, NO mid, Net taker (YES minus NO customer flow), Hedge force, and Read (MM-BUY, MM-SELL, SQUEEZE, or BALANCED).

Use the Show dropdown to filter to near-the-money only, 10 nearest, 20 nearest, or all strikes.

What to look for: find the strikes with the largest absolute Hedge force and a consistent Read label — those are the structural walls to watch. Strikes with large positive Net taker AND a MM-BUY read are the most confirming: both customer flow and MM hedging point the same way.

Current Contract Flow History Charts — Flow Tab

Four charts on the Flow tab tracking how customer order flow has evolved throughout the active contract. Resets each time the contract settles. Toggle between Hourly and 15-min views with the contract selector.

Cumulative YES vs NO

Running total of customer dollars on each side since contract open. When the green line (YES) diverges sharply from the red (NO), customers are heavily one-sided.

Net customer bias (YES − NO)

The gap between cumulative lines, as a single signed line. Positive = net YES buying; negative = net NO buying.

Customer VWAP chart

Volume-weighted average price paid by YES buyers and NO buyers over time. When YES VWAP rises above $0.50, YES buyers paid above fair value on average — they need spot above the strike at settle to break even.

Pain meter (mid minus VWAP)

Dollar per-contract profit or loss of the average customer position at the current mid. Positive = customers in profit. Negative = customers are underwater. A scrub dropdown lets you compare pain meter readings from past hourly contracts.

What to look for: when the Pain Meter turns sharply negative with 15 minutes left, underwater customers face a hard choice — take the loss now or hope for a reversal. Mass exits push the mid lower, which can accelerate the very move they are trying to avoid.

Capitulation Pressure — Pressure Tab

A composite real-time score measuring how much urgency underwater customers are feeling, weighted by how little time is left to unwind. Rises sharply in the last ~10 minutes of a contract.

Live pressure

Headline score with a bar fill and tier label: LOW / ELEVATED / HIGH / EXTREME. A percentile vs the last 30 days tells you how unusual this reading is.

Sigma multiplier slider

Adjusts how aggressively the formula weights gamma proximity. Slide higher to stress-test what a vol spike would do to pressure.

Acceleration

Rate of change of pressure ($ per minute over the last 30 seconds). Rising acceleration means pressure is building faster than normal.

Urgency multiplier

The time-decay component — 1 divided by the square root of minutes remaining. Spikes exponentially in the last 5 minutes.

Cascade loaded?

Yes/no flag with detail conditions. YES means the model believes conditions are present for a cascading forced-exit move.

Pressure landscape bar chart

Re-runs the pressure formula at every strike on the ladder, showing where hypothetical BTC movement would create the most customer pain. Lets you see danger zones before price reaches them.

Pressure history chart

Time-series of capitulation pressure over the current contract life.

What to look for: Cascade Loaded = YES with high acceleration in the last 5 minutes is the Pressure tab's most actionable signal. Check the landscape chart to see which direction (up or down) leads to the highest pain spike — that is the direction most likely to trigger forced exits.

Max Pain Chart — Pressure Tab

A bar chart showing the total dollar loss customers would suffer at every possible BTC settle price. The peak of the chart is the "max pain" price — the level where market makers profit most from customer losses.

The X axis is hypothetical BTC settle prices. The Y axis is total customer dollar loss at each settle. The dashed vertical line marks current spot. The tallest bar is the max pain level. The callout above the chart names the peak strike and total customer dollar loss at that level.

What to look for: when spot is already near the max pain level, the magnetic effect is already working. When spot is far from max pain with 15+ minutes to settle, watch whether price drifts toward it as time expires — the max pain magnet typically strengthens in the last 20 minutes of a contract.

Auto Trader Card — Live Tab

The Auto Trader is a fully automated paper trading engine that reads the live terrain and fires entries and exits based on terrain rules, running continuously during market hours. 10 contracts per fill, $13k bankroll, halts at −$50 per session. Its book is separate from your manual paper trading book.

Portfolio strip

Cash, Realized P&L, Total equity, and open position count for the Auto Trader's own book.

Recent decisions

Collapsible accordion showing the last engine actions, including skips (positions the engine evaluated but decided not to take, with the reason why).

Per-rule hit rates

A table showing each entry rule, its active/paused status, total fires (N), hit percentage, and net P&L. This is the performance breakdown by strategy rule.

Recent lessons

Plain-English read on the last 10 settled trades, explaining what happened and why the engine made each call.

Open positions

Current live Auto Trader positions with unrealized P&L.

Completed trades

Paginated history of every Auto Trader fill: time, action, contract type, strike, side, mid at fill, P&L, and close reason.

Sound mute toggle

The bell icon in the card header mutes the trade-fill audio alert if you don't want to hear a beep on every Auto Trader fill.

What to look for: the Per-rule hit rates table is the most useful panel here. If one rule has a dramatically higher hit rate than others, that rule's entry conditions are the strongest signals in the current market regime.

Forecast Calibration — Help Tab

A calibration scorecard on the Help tab showing the model's historical hit rate on 70% probability bands. Two cells: 15-minute calibration (was the model right on 15-min binary direction) and End-of-hour calibration (was the EOH forecast in the 1-sigma band at settle). Each shows a hit percentage and the sample size (N) of resolved forecasts.

What to look for: a calibrated model should show ~70% hit rate on its 70% bands. Significantly above 70% means the model is conservative (underconfident); significantly below means it is overconfident. Small N values are noisy — look for N > 50 before drawing conclusions.

Methodology Explainer — Help Tab

A plain-English card on the Help tab explaining the mechanism behind the terrain colors. The key insight: the colors are not sentiment — they are mechanistic forces the market maker is compelled to execute by their hedge book.

The causal chain: customer flow → MM hedge direction → terrain color. Green = customers net-bought YES → MM short YES → MM buys BTC as spot rises toward the strike → self-reinforcing upward pressure past the strike. Red = inverse. Gray = balanced flow, no directional pressure regardless of OI size.

What to look for: read this card once when you're new to the dashboard. Understanding the mechanism — rather than treating the colors as buy/sell signals — is what makes the terrain readable.

X-Post Share Button

A share button available on the OI chart that generates a formatted X (Twitter) post with a screenshot of the chart and structured text describing the current read. Five post modes:

Read panel (live narrated)

The default. Scrapes the READ panel rows and formats them with compact labels for a quick, actionable setup post.

Technical (gamma details)

Quant-audience format with gamma and OI metrics.

Simple range forecast

Retail-friendly 1-sigma bands only.

What-if triggers

Closest strikes and the two-way scenario in plain English.

Terrain read

Band vocabulary using color emoji to encode zone types (green=MM-buy, red=MM-sell, blue=squeeze, white=balanced).

What to look for: use "Read panel" for most posts — it's the most actionable format for followers new to the dashboard. Use "Terrain read" when you want to convey the structural setup visually with emoji.

Cmd+K Search Palette

A global search palette that opens with Cmd+K (Mac) or Ctrl+K (Windows), or by pressing / anywhere on the page. Type any text to search across tabs, layer names, and dashboard actions. Arrow keys navigate results; Enter jumps to the selection; Cmd+Enter keeps the palette open. Esc closes it.

What to look for: use Cmd+K to jump to any tab without scrolling back to the nav bar, or to toggle a specific chart layer by name without hunting for the pill button.

iOS Install Prompt (Add to Home Screen)

A banner that appears at the bottom of the page when you open AnalogQuant in Safari on an iPhone and have not already installed it. Tap the Share icon in Safari's toolbar, then tap "Add to Home Screen." This installs AnalogQuant as a Progressive Web App — it gets its own icon on your home screen, opens full-screen without the browser chrome, and uses the dark status bar. Once installed, the app launches faster and looks cleaner on iPhone. The banner only appears once; dismiss it with the X if you don't want to install.

What to look for: if you trade BTC hourly binaries from your phone, install the app for the best mobile experience — the full-screen layout eliminates browser UI clutter during fast-moving contracts.